The latest insights from real estate data in Canada, as analyzed by CREA, paint a nuanced picture of the housing market for the upcoming year. CREA's revised forecast signals a significant shift, projecting a 9.8% decrease in residential property sales, estimating approximately 450,000 transactions. This adjustment is coupled with an anticipated 3.3% decline in the average national price, settling at $680,686. These shifts are attributed to the current softer market conditions and the expectation that interest rates will persist at higher levels for an extended period.

Looking forward to 2024, CREA foresees a positive trajectory. A rebound in home sales is projected, indicating a 9% increase. Additionally, average home prices are expected to experience a modest recovery, with a 1.5% uptick during the same period. Notably, CREA highlights the potential stability in the annual national average price, maintaining it within the $680,000-$700,000 range for the fourth consecutive year.

However, the report underscores the crucial influence of the Bank of Canada's decisions on interest rates. The assumption is that there will be either no further rate hikes or, at most, one more, with indications that the next move might be a downward adjustment. The outcome of these monetary policy decisions will significantly impact the dynamics of the housing market in 2024, especially influencing the nature of the spring market. The uncertainty in interest rate movements adds a layer of complexity to the forecast, making it contingent on how these economic factors unfold in the coming months.

DATA CREDIT CREA. 

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